US winter 2025-2026 forecast: Super El Niño could bring floods, droughts, and an 'old-fashioned' cold season

US forecasters are warning that the 2026 Super El Niño could rank among the most intense since record-keeping began in 1950, according to NOAA. The agency expects its biggest impacts to include droughts, downpours, and heat waves, though the specific timing of those effects remains unconfirmed. The developing pattern has reportedly locked a split-flow system into place for the US winter, according to forecasters. That setup would likely bring flood risk to the Gulf Coast and Southeast while leaving the northern tier milder and drier, with less snow possible for Ohio. Separately, the Farmers' Almanac predicts an earlier-than-usual start to winter across most of the country, describing the season as "old-fashioned" with cold and snow. The forecasts matter now because they sketch a winter of stark regional contrasts, but they are not yet fully corroborated. NOAA's ranking claim, the split-flow pattern, and the almanacs' predictions all come from their respective publishers and have not been independently verified. Exact dates for any of these effects remain unknown.

NOAA expects a Super El Niño that could rank among the strongest on record

NOAA says the 2026 Super El Niño will rank among the most intense since record-keeping began in 1950, according to the agency. The forecast is attributed to NOAA and has not been independently verified; this is a developing story with limited corroboration.

The agency expects the event's biggest impacts to include droughts, downpours, and heat waves, according to NOAA. These are broad categories rather than precise regional predictions, and the agency has not specified which months or dates these conditions would hit.

NOAA's projection places the coming El Niño at or near the top of a list that stretches back to 1950. That benchmark matters because the strongest El Niños on record have tended to produce outsized weather disruptions across the United States, though the agency has not detailed exactly how this one would compare to past events beyond the ranking.

Forecasters speaking separately from NOAA have said the Super El Niño has locked a split-flow pattern into place for the US winter. That pattern, they predict, will bring flood risk to the Gulf Coast and Southeast while the northern tier experiences a milder and drier season. These forecasters' claims are also attributed and not confirmed.

The briefing notes that NOAA's specific timing for the El Niño's peak or its most severe effects is not yet known. The agency has not said when the droughts, downpours, and heat waves would occur, or how long they might last.

Because the story is still developing, the details here rest on what NOAA and forecasters have stated publicly. No independent verification has been conducted, and the full scope of the El Niño's impact will only become clear as the winter unfolds.

A split-flow pattern sets up a winter of two halves for the US

Forecasters say the Super El Niño has locked a split-flow pattern into place for the US winter, and the result is a season split in two. The Gulf Coast and Southeast face an elevated flood risk, according to forecasters, while the northern tier of the country is expected to see a milder and drier winter. The pattern, they say, is now fixed in place, shaping conditions from coast to coast.

The split-flow setup typically sends storm systems along two distinct tracks, leaving some regions wet and others dry. For the Gulf Coast and Southeast, the forecasters predict that means heavier precipitation and a higher chance of flooding. For the northern tier, the same pattern is expected to suppress snowfall and keep temperatures closer to or above normal. Forecasters also suggest the strengthening Super El Niño could mean less snow for Ohio this winter, a detail that fits the broader northern trend.

The long-range outlook is not unanimous. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a cooler-than-average fall for California starting in October, followed by a wetter winter, especially in the southern part of the state, which it attributes to a developing El Niño. The Farmers' Almanac, by contrast, says winter in the US for 2025-2026 will start earlier than usual, with most of the country experiencing cold and snow. It describes the coming season as "old-fashioned," though it does not specify what that means in terms of particular weather events or which regions fall under "most of the US."

The two almanacs' forecasts are not directly comparable with the forecasters' split-flow prediction. The almanacs offer broader, temperature-and-precipitation style outlooks, while the forecasters' split-flow model is more specific about regional divides. What is not yet known is timing: the exact dates or months for the split-flow pattern's impact on the Gulf Coast and Southeast, the northern tier's milder conditions, or the reduced snow in Ohio all remain unconfirmed. The same applies to the Farmers' Almanac's early winter start and its cold, snowy conditions. These are early-season projections, and the details are still being worked out.

Why this forecast is drawing attention now

The attention on this forecast rests on who is making it. NOAA is a federal agency with a continuous record of climate observation dating back decades, and its predictions carry institutional weight. When NOAA says a Super El Niño could rank among the most intense since record-keeping began in 1950, that is a statement from a body with a long tracking history, not a casual seasonal guess. The sheer scale of the claim, according to NOAA, is what makes it notable.

The two almanacs operate differently. The Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac both publish long-range seasonal outlooks, but they rely on their own proprietary formulas, which they have never fully disclosed. Their methods are not peer-reviewed, and their track record is mixed. Both have made accurate calls in some years and missed badly in others. That history means their predictions, such as an "old-fashioned" winter for most of the US or a cooler fall in California, are treated with more caution than a federal forecast.

What draws attention now is the convergence of these very different sources on a similar theme. NOAA, per its own statements, expects a Super El Niño with impacts including droughts, downpours, and heat waves. The Farmers' Almanac predicts an early, cold, and snowy winter for much of the country. The Old Farmer's Almanac points to a wetter winter in California. The sources disagree on details and timing, but they all point to a winter that departs from recent norms.

The 2026 event is significant because of its potential intensity. According to NOAA, it could rank among the most intense El Niños since 1950. That is a high bar. The last comparable events caused measurable disruption across the US. Whether this one meets that threshold remains unconfirmed, but the possibility alone explains the current scrutiny.

What the forecasters are predicting: droughts, downpours, and an 'old-fashioned' winter

The forecasters are not in full agreement, but they share one theme: the coming winter will not be subtle. NOAA says the Super El Niño now building will deliver its heaviest blows through droughts, downpours, and heat waves. Those are the agency's own words, and they carry weight because they describe a pattern already taking shape rather than a distant possibility. The agency has not put dates on these impacts, so the timing remains open.

The Old Farmer's Almanac is looking further west. It predicts California will see a cooler-than-average fall starting in October, then a wetter winter, with the southern part of the state bearing the brunt of the moisture. The almanac ties that wetter outlook to the developing El Niño, which it says should steer more storms toward the region. For a state that has swung between drought and deluge in recent years, the direction of the shift matters as much as the size of it.

The Farmers' Almanac, a separate publication with its own long-running formula, is pushing a colder and snowier story for most of the country. It says winter will start earlier than usual and that much of the United States will see cold and snow. It has gone further, describing the season as "old-fashioned" — a phrase that suggests a return to harsher conditions than recent winters have offered. What that means in specific temperatures or snowfall totals is not spelled out, and the almanac has not said which regions count as "most of the U.S." or when exactly the early start will arrive.

The two almanacs are not contradicting each other so much as looking at different pieces of the same map. The Old Farmer's Almanac is focused on California's wet turn; the Farmers' Almanac is painting a broad national picture of cold and snow. Both are predictions, not certainties, and neither has offered the kind of granular detail that would let a resident of, say, Ohio plan a snow-shoveling schedule. What is clear is that the almanacs and NOAA all expect a winter that departs from the mild norm — even if they disagree on where the worst of it lands.

Regional breakdown: Gulf Coast and Southeast flood risk, northern tier mild and dry, Ohio’

Forecasters say the split-flow pattern locked into place by the Super El Niño will divide the country in two this winter. The Gulf Coast and Southeast face an elevated risk of flooding, according to those forecasters, as the pattern steers wet systems toward the region. The northern tier, by contrast, is expected to see a milder and drier winter, with conditions running warmer than usual across much of the northern United States.

Ohio sits on the dividing line of that split, and forecasters suggest the strengthening Super El Niño could mean less snow for the state this winter. The exact timing of any reduced snowfall is not yet clear, and the forecasters have not specified which months would be most affected.

The Old Farmer's Almanac points to a different outcome for California, predicting a wetter winter overall, especially in the southern part of the state. That wetter forecast is tied to the developing El Niño, according to the almanac. Before winter arrives, the almanac also predicts a cooler-than-average fall for California starting in October.

The regional picture is not fully settled. Forecasters have not given specific dates for when the split-flow pattern's impact will hit the Gulf Coast and Southeast, nor when the milder and drier conditions will settle over the northern tier. The exact timing of the reduced snow forecast for Ohio also remains unknown.

The two almanacs offer broader, less regional detail. The Farmers' Almanac predicts winter will start earlier than usual across the U.S. and that most of the country will see cold and snow, describing the season as "old-fashioned." It does not specify which regions fall under "most of the U.S." or what "old-fashioned" means in concrete weather terms.

All of these projections are attributed to the forecasters and almanacs that issued them; none are independently confirmed. The split-flow pattern's regional effects, in particular, carry limited corroboration at this stage.

Reactions and context: how the almanacs and NOAA compare

The two almanacs have staked out their positions, but they are not speaking with the same voice as NOAA. The Old Farmer's Almanac, which has published continuously since 1792, calls for a cooler-than-average fall in California starting in October, followed by a wetter winter for the state, especially in the south, driven by a developing El Niño. The Farmers' Almanac, its rival since 1818, predicts an earlier-than-usual start to winter across the US, with most of the country seeing cold and snow in a season it describes as "old-fashioned."

The divergence is a matter of method. NOAA's outlook is built on climate models and ocean data, tracking sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific. The almanacs rely on proprietary formulas, some of which date back centuries. The Farmers' Almanac has long claimed its formula is derived from a secret mathematical and astronomical recipe, while The Old Farmer's Almanac says its forecasts are based on solar science, climatology, and meteorology. Neither publishes the underlying calculations.

Their track records are a point of contention. The Old Farmer's Almanac claims an accuracy rate of about 80 percent; the Farmers' Almanac makes a similar claim. Independent verification of those figures is thin, and forecasters generally treat long-range almanac predictions with caution, noting that skill drops sharply beyond two weeks.

NOAA's warning that the 2026 Super El Niño could rank among the most intense since record-keeping began in 1950, according to the agency, carries more weight with emergency planners because it is peer-reviewed and tied to ocean and atmospheric data. Still, no official reaction from state or local agencies has been reported yet. That silence is notable given the scale of the predicted impacts — droughts, downpours, and heat waves, per NOAA. For now, the public is left weighing a government forecast against two commercial almanacs with very different methods and histories.

What happens next: timing and what remains uncertain

The forecast window runs through the 2025-2026 winter, and the first sign of it may arrive before the season formally begins. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a cooler-than-average fall for California starting in October 2025, with a wetter winter to follow, especially in the southern part of the state, tied to a developing El Niño.

The Farmers' Almanac, a separate publication, predicts the winter will start earlier than usual across the U.S. It describes the coming season as "old-fashioned," with cold and snow for most of the country. Neither almanac has specified what "old-fashioned" means in concrete terms, nor which regions fall inside "most of the U.S."

What remains unclear is timing. Forecasters say the split-flow pattern is locked in for the winter, but they have not given specific dates or months for when its effects will hit. The exact window for flood risk along the Gulf Coast and Southeast is unknown. The same applies to the milder, drier conditions predicted for the northern tier and the reduced snow expected in Ohio.

The NOAA forecast is similarly unspecific. The agency says the 2026 Super El Niño could rank among the most intense since record-keeping began in 1950, with impacts including droughts, downpours, and heat waves — but it has not attached those impacts to particular months or regions.

All of this is attributed to the forecasters and almanacs themselves; none of it is independently confirmed. The broad shape of the winter is agreed upon — an early, cold, and snowy season for much of the country, with a wetter California and a flood-prone South — but the details of when and where remain open.

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